A Third of Lebanese Voters Still Not Sold on 2022 Elections
A recent report by German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) found that 34.8% of prospective Lebanese voters do not plan to vote in the May 2022 parliamentary elections. A year ago, the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut (IFI) found that 14% of prospective voters weren’t planning to cast their ballots. In May of 2020, Information International, a Beirut-based research consultancy firm, found that only 11.2% don’t intend to vote this May. The figures are on the rise and enough for concern with only weeks away from the elections.
It’s not all bad news, though, when it comes to election stats. In late 2021, the number of Lebanese diasporas registered to vote tripled the 2018 figure. The 2018 elections were the first parliamentary election that allowed Lebanese living abroad to cast their ballots from their countries of residence. That’s almost a quarter of a million Lebanese men and women across the globe registered their intent to vote.
Positive Outlooks in the Report
Another significant number from the KAS report that sounded the alarm on the unwillingness of 34.8% to vote found that 25.7% of respondents said they plan to vote for an independent figure in May 2022. Another 12.3% said they would specifically vote for groups and individuals formed from the October 17, 2019 uprising, second only to Hezbollah, with 14.7% of voters expressing their intent to vote for the “Party of God.”
So, if more than a quarter would vote independent, and another 12.3% would cast their vote for October 17 lists, the 34.8% of respondents of the recent KAS study who don’t want to vote at all are both a challenge and an opportunity for reform-minded lists and candidates this May.
Before delving into the possible reasons for a third of voters turning sour on their ballot actually making a difference in the upcoming elections, it’s important to skim through the rest of the KAS report. Despite a violent, concerted effort to persecute the faces and groups from October 17, and a constant stream of smear campaigns both online and on established political parties’ TVs, newspapers and radio stations, 35.1% of respondents still support the October 17 uprising. A key takeaway from the report is that 36.9% of those surveyed said they initially endorsed October 17, but no longer do. Only 27.6% said they never supported the 2019 movement.
The last number to take into account in the KAS report, is that 52% of respondents supported the unification of electoral lists for groups and individuals that participated in the October 17, 2019 movement. This confirms several union and university victories where broad coalitions were formed, versus catastrophic defeats with multiple lists competing for the voters keen to vote for someone other than the established sectarian parties.
Possible Factors for Unwillingness to Vote
At first glance, it is obvious that the complete lack of trust in the groups and individuals overseeing the electoral process, has only gotten worse. Voters cannot be expected to have much hope in the same group of sectarian political parties that have plunged them into this man-made crisis and continue to obstruct justice in the August 4, 2020 Beirut Port blast. That, coupled with thousands of documented irregularities in the 2018 elections, makes many voters doubt whether the elections will be truly free and fair when overseen by an embattled political class willing to see Lebanon crumble completely before giving in to public pressure for reforms and change. Drastic change Lebanon so desperately needs.
Upon closer inspection though, it’s clear that trust and hope in groups and individuals seen as part of the change, is also plummeting. An inability or unwillingness to unveil candidates “too soon”, coupled with daily character assassination attempts by the ruling political parties, has made many voters skeptical of lists and coalitions vowing to change the status quo. The inability, or unwillingness, to present a coherent coalition has many voters not convinced that giving their vote to sworn changemakers will actually improve their lives.
The less obvious, but ever present, reason for a loss of hope in elections bringing about real change, is the dire economic and social situation most if not all Lebanese families find themselves in. As the population struggles to make ends meet, traditional clientelistic networks, though vastly less funded after the economic collapse, are gearing into action to sway voters with simple gestures like “donating” diesel to local neighborhood generators to help keep the lights on. Another is the much-hyped social welfare card funded by the World Bank, which was supposed to go into effect in 2020. The rations card was repeatedly stalled, but a recent announcement promised that it will finally begin to roll out for tens of thousands of Lebanese families, just in time for the elections. A blatant attempt at using foreign aid to garner favor with disgruntled voters. After all, it’s the sectarian parties that make the final call on who gets the cash assistance and when.
In other words, even though the ability of sectarian political parties to bribe their voters has been greatly diminished, the value of such bribes in light of what the World Bank dubs one of the three worst collapses since the 1850s, has also gone down. Right now, you don’t need to bribe voters with hefty bribes like public sector no-show jobs or expensive infrastructure projects. A few hundred liters of diesel for auxiliary power generators, or 25 USD on the expected rations card will be more than enough to sway some reluctant voters back towards the traditional sectarian parties in power.
Of course, when talking about Lebanon’s deeply entrenched sectarian political establishment, you cannot discount the concerted effort to disinform and misinform voters in hopes of keeping voting turnout down. Whether it’s the FPM’s constant rabbits pulled from a hat, like the “megacenter” nonissue, several failed attempts to void diaspora votes, or my favorite, “bad weather conditions”. There’s also the usual Hezbollah adage of “extremist groups” might “hinder” the elections used whenever the militia is in a tight spot. Add to that all the talking heads on TV constantly casting doubt on if and how much elections can really change, coupled with online smear campaigns against candidates the establishment sees as a threat, fueled by a robust network of “electronic militias” detailed on this blog in the past, and you get a lot of confusion many are too busy to pick apart.
All of the above is probably fueling the deep mistrust and utter hopelessness in change at the ballot box. A lot of the efforts of establishment figures, isn’t campaigning for their (same) candidates, but bombarding people with a constant “it’s no use” “it won’t happen” and similar sound bites that make an already overwhelmed prospective voter just give up…
Voter Turnout Will Decide the Outcome
The higher the voter turnout, the better the chances change can occur. The lower the voter turnout, the deeper the current system digs into its unsustainable system of bad governance. Established sectarian political parties have well-oiled and experienced organizers to get their base out to vote, even though it has shrunk since October 17, 2019. Newer parties and coalitions lack the experience and discipline to whip their bases into action come May 2022.
Traditional sectarian parties have understood this dynamic great, and looking at the election campaigns so far, groups like the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah have insisted on running many of their same candidates, using the exact same slogans and focusing the energy and time of their online and offline canvassing on casting doubt on newer parties and their integrity. In recent weeks, the FPM is trying to blame their detractors for their failed electricity plan, instead of trying to defend why they failed so terribly at running this over-budget and severely under-performing sector.
The inability of opposition and independent groups to iron out the wrinkles in a much-anticipated broad coalition has only helped this concerted effort to thwart any real impact from the seismic shift in public opinion since late 2019, getting translated at the ballot box. In a space with a lot of misinformation and disinformation, a simple, clear and believable alternative is already late in introducing itself to Lebanese voters. But not too late.
There’s a Real Chance Still
It’s abundantly clear now that the establishment considers these elections a way to delegitimize calls for change that became impossible to ignore after October 17, 2019. It’s also a way to regenerate a flimsy legitimacy for business-as-usual that led to the unprecedented collapse in Lebanese society and the economy.
The only way to continue to shake the foundations of this post Civil War order is to ensure that the legitimacy of the parties and politicians are brought to serious doubt with a voter turnout, locally and globally, high enough to upset the expected attempts to make the voting process as opaque and unfair as possible.
Sure, parties like Hezbollah or the FPM can make a ballot box disappear, but if enough people come out to vote, the rigging will be too obvious to allow them to continue this complete hijacking of what Lebanese voters actually want: an end to business as usual and a fighting chance for hope in a better tomorrow.
In the weeks remaining, campaigns hoping for change need to do two main things: form a broad enough coalition that voters can rally behind, and ensure efforts to get people out to vote this May are a priority, not an afterthought.
After all, only 50% of respondents said they are going to vote. There’s another 50% that could be persuaded to not boycott, but instead make sure that we at least try to change things at the ballot box, if not by winning a majority, by making sure those clinging to power know that it won’t last forever and calls to change cannot be so easily dismissed with the usual toolkit inherited from the days of the Assad occupation of Lebanon and rigged elections.
Please, go out and vote.
